3. Computer Revolution [Next | Previous | Contents]

Expected Revolution

It was just over fifty years ago that Scientific American reported the following:

Days of laborious computation by trained mathematicians are no longer necessary at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. A new one-ton machine with many complicated levers and gears will in a single action solve nine simultaneous equations. [1]

This ‘monster’ was the precursor of the electronic computer, and preceded it by 9 years. The first true digital computer is reported to have been ENIAC, which was built in 1946. It contained 18,500 vacuum tubes, and was as much of a ‘monster’ as the mechanical computing machine mentioned above. Even though it was an electronic device, it could not do much more than the MIT invention.

Contrast these ‘monsters’ with the inexpensive computing devices which are available today. You are all probably aware of how the size and price of hand-held digital calculators dropped dramatically during the 1970s. Today a calculator the size of a credit card costing about a dollar, can perform calculations which make ENIAC look like a ‘moron’.

I am writing this book on a computer which contains the equivalent of 16 million vacuum tubes, and takes up the space of two hardback dictionaries. It has a sophisticated word processing package with a 100,000+ word dictionary. This computer can be purchased for under $2,000. Other desktop computers are becoming available which contain the equivalent of over 4 billion vacuum tubes and can access trillions of characters of data in small external storage devices. It is predicted that “by the year 2000, it will be possible to build integrated circuits with one billion transistors.” [2] These machines will operate in the range of one trillion operations per second. [3] And fifteen to twenty years after that ... ?

The developments which have occurred in computer technology over the past 50 years are staggering. Yet it does not appear that there will be any limit over the next few decades to the continuation of these developments. But the developments in hardware technology is really not important in isolation from its impact on society, and more importantly to us, on the Church.

Fifty years ago the majority of North Americans worked either in primary industries (such as farming or mining) or in secondary industries (such as steel manufacturing). Today over half of the North American work force is involved directly or indirectly in creating or processing information. This includes workers in the traditional professions such as ministers, accountants, teachers, lawyers, and clerks; and it also includes those working in newer professions such as advertising, financial services, electronic publishing, telecommunications, scientific research, engineering, and computer systems.

With so many workers involved in the processing of information it is clear that the nature of our society has changed significantly since the Second World War. Much of this change can be attributed to the arrival of the computer and associated telecommunication technologies. However, it is likely that there will be even more change in the next twenty five years. As a greater percentage of the work force becomes involved with the processing of information, there will be an increased need for tools (such as the computer) to process this information. And, as these tools become more commonly available, their impact will become greater.

Whether for good or evil, we have introduced a technology which has put our society onto an escalating spiral path. More computers will be needed to process the increasing volumes of information, and the introduction of more computers will make our society into a more information-intense society. “Today we live on the frontier between five centuries of mechanism and the new electronics, between the homogenous and the simultaneous.” [4]

The transitional era in which we live has been called the ‘third wave’ (the first being the agricultural revolution and the second being the industrial revolution), the ‘second industrial revolution’, the ‘information age’ and the ‘computer age’. Whatever you wish to call this new age, without a doubt we are in the midst of a revolution.

In the end, this revolution will be as significant as that which began with the introduction of print technology 500 years ago. As we have seen, the Reformation and the rise of the Nation States can be largely attributed to the introduction of the printing press. The following quotations give an indication of the revolution which we can expect as the result of the introduction of the computer:

When Gutenberg overturned 1500 years of scribal practice, he set about performing the tasks of the scribes to the greater convenience of his customers ... But the new reality was a change in the nature of knowledge. ... A change in the storage and dissemination processes of information must bring in its train a major shift in the realities of information power and in the relationship[s in] all of society ... [5]

All the effects of print technology now stand in stark opposition to the electronic technology. In the sixteenth century the whole of ancient and medieval culture stood in equally conflicting relation to the new print technology. [6]

At last, through the digital computer and through data services, information technology has united all media and forms of information. In the future, all will be served by the same technology, and all will be integrated in our life, work and recreation. [7]

The idea is that the changes through which we are now going are every bit as tremendous as those which transformed the world of local communities based on subsistence agriculture into the world of sprawling cities, machines, mills, and factories. [8]

Like any other extension of man, typography had psychic and social consequences that suddenly shifted previous boundaries and patterns of culture. In bringing the ancient and medieval worlds into fusion — or, as some would say, confusion — the printed book created a third world, the modern world. ... Electric means of moving of information are altering our typographic cultures as sharply as print modified medieval manuscript and scholastic culture. [9]

The old world of the industrial revolution that we inherited from the past is clearly in upheaval. This chaotic period is certainly creating serious difficulties. But this period of chaos is a fertile one, for the chaos is caused by the coming of a tremendous new age. [10]

Silicon Saviour

Since the invention of the computer, many writers have expressed opinions about how this revolution will change society, and even man. Some, such as Robert Jastrow in an essay in Time, take an evolutionary perspective. Jastrow sees the day when computers will replace man as the intelligent life force on the earth. He says that:

judging by the record of the past, we can expect that a new species will arise out of man, surpassing his achievements as he has surpassed those of his predecessor, Homo erectus. Only a carbon-chemistry chauvinist would assume that the new species must be man’s flesh-and-blood descendants, with brains housed in fragile shells of bone. [11]

His view, based on the evolutionary presupposition that man is progressing from a primitive state to an advanced state, leads him to the materialistic conclusion that:

man will ... provide for computer reproduction, as he does today. In return, the computer will minister to our social and economic needs. Child of man’s brain rather than his loins, it will become his salvation in a world of crushing complexity. [12]

Jastrow is not the only writer who has replaced God with the brain-child of man — a god after man’s own image. Diane Butler, for example, states: “The whole made possible by telematics holds infinite promise, not only for us, but also for our children.” [13]

James Martin, a former IBM database expert, a writer of dozens of books, and a ‘guru’ in the computer industry, also preaches salvation by computer. He says in his book The Wired Society that “faced with the dilemmas of our age it is imperative that we employ benevolent technologies to tackle our problems and build a better world. ... To heal, we have to move to new technologies, new types of consumer products, new ways of generating and spending wealth.” [14]

Martin may be an expert in computer technology but in his books he appears to lack an understanding of history and of the Bible’s teachings. He seems to have missed the fact that the writings of Plato (The Republic), Thomas More (Utopia) and Sir Francis Bacon (New Atlantis) failed to predict the emergence of a new humanity. And, he does not appear to heed the failures of the later Utopian Socialists of the 18th century and the failures of the systems which developed from this socialism: Marxian Socialism and modern liberalism. He gives no consideration to original sin which pollutes man and makes impossible any utopia which is not established under the kingship of Christ.

But he is not alone in his view. Even the eminent group of scientists in the Club of Rome who originally became news with their world simulation model, written about in their book Limits to Growth, presented the view that the computer will be man’s saviour. In their projection of computer and related technology, they stated that “we seem called on to build a heavenly welfare society on the earth without the assistance of an almighty god. ... We must use our limited resources at the highest possible efficiency [here is the importance of the computer] if we are to realize anything approaching this goal of paradise on this sinful earth — indeed, if we are to avoid sliding to a situation more closely approximating purgatory, or even hell.” [15]

The Missing Revolution

Although as a Christian I cannot agree with the view that the computer will be the saviour of the human race, I can agree that developments in computer and associated communication technology will “turn the world upside down.” Yet, this change will not be as some might predict. For example, when Apple introduced its first personal computer, there were many who predicted that in only a few years every home would have a computer for indexing recipes, reconciling the bank account, keeping inventories of hobby collections (records, stamps, etc.) or for accessing information data banks (stock quotations, airline route information, etc.). However, about the only uses most people have found for home computers are for playing games and word processing. There are of course many businessmen, engineers and computer professionals who have found home, portable, and lap-top computers to be valuable, since they allow them to bring their office work home with them.

The predicted demand for home computers has probably not been realized for the following reasons:

• Computers have not been convenient to use — To perform many home-tasks with the present generation of computers is less convenient than performing them in the traditional way. To use a pen and hand-calculator to balance a check book is simply easier than turning on a computer and typing in each transaction.

• The services provided, to date, are not often used at home — The number of accesses to current computer systems for most home applications would be very limited. The average household might write two or three cheques per week, or make airline reservations twice a year.

• TVs and computer displays do not provide photographic quality graphics — To date, the commercial trials of selling information to the public using home computers or TVs accessing computerized information data banks (videotext) have been unsuccessful because of the low resolution of the image available on screens, the slow speed of communicating the information, and the low volume of information which is of any practical use to a household.

• Computers are not simple to use — To some, the apparent difficulty of using a computer has made it difficult for them to make the jump into this new technology.

• Computers have not yet provided a truly new information medium — “Even if all the economic and demographic preconditions exist in perfect form, for a series of new devices to be marketed en masse and simultaneously to societies already brimful of entertainment and information gadgetry ... of one thing we may be certain, these new devices will not take off with the rapidity of the radio in the 1920s, for they supplement and replace, rather than provide a fundamentally new experience.”  [16]

Underlying these shortcomings of the current generation of computing technology is a fundamental reason why the predictions have failed to be realized. The computer is in the ‘horseless carriage’ stage of its existence. Shortly after its invention, the printing press also went through a similar stage. The first printed books were made to look like they were produced by hand copying, and many in the Church and State resented the potential changes to the established ways. The printing press had not yet been used to develop entirely new forms of communication (e.g., the newspaper), and its potential impact was still only a distant rumble.

Computer technology, supported by a worldwide communications network, is today in much the same state as the printing press was 500 years ago. Computers are used primarily to automate tasks which have been performed manually for centuries (accounting, order processing, inventory control, library cataloguing and circulation, etc.). This automation is resented by many, both in union and non-union organizations. So the potential of the computer is still only a rumble.

However, every day the rumble is growing louder. You see the impact of computers everywhere you look. At the checkout counter in your neighbourhood supermarket or drug store, under the hood of your car, at your bank, in your entertainment devices, and at work. Computers are becoming part of every aspect of our daily lives.

Over the next decade they will become easier and more convenient to use, and will become so ubiquitous that most people will hardly notice their presence. [17] New interface metaphors are being developed [18], [19] and deployed at such places as the Xerox PARC laboratory, which will make computers as easy to use as a basic telephone. These developments include the use of visual touch sensitive screens, [20] new graphics displays, the use of pens as pointing and writing devices, [21] and the creation of a new mode of computing with inexpensive flat portable computers (the Apple Newton was the first [small] step in this direction).

Computers are becoming lighter and more portable at an amazing pace. [22] Within a few years PCs with flat plasma screens will be about the size of a clipboard and not much thicker. [23] Prototypes are already under development for screens no thinker than a pad of paper. [24] These flat portable computer displays will soon provide large-sized photographic quality pictures in colour. They will allow the equivalent of full-sized magazine pages to be displayed and will operate at speeds comparable to what you can achieve when turning the pages of a magazine.

We predict that as flat panels continue to evolve toward higher resolution and reduced power and weight, they will increasingly replace paper. In addition to their flexibility, they offer the advantage of responding to touch or stylus. These qualities all tend to simplify the most cumbersome element in modern electronics, the interface, enabling the user to take full advantage of the computer itself. [25]

These flat displays will communicate via infrared and radio signals to master computers [26] in your home or office and will be tied into high speed networks to provide access to additional information and services that are almost unimaginable today.

You will use a number of these portable information appliances for displaying different ‘documents’, rather than displaying many documents on one screen, as is done currently. You could, for instance, carry one of these appliances with you as you would a book, or lay three or four on a table or desk with each displaying different documents.

Along with this developing hardware technology will be new information retrieval technology which will permit you to browse quickly a vast ‘sea’ of documents using personal filters. These filters will permit you to access and obtain useful information quickly and structure and display it in a format that you feel comfortable with. In addition, a collaborative software agent [27], [28] in your network of information appliances will maintain a profile about your work and recreation patterns and will ‘anticipate’ your requirements. This agent will help you find and utilize the information that will be available from the network.

Just as the significant impact of the printing press on the society was not seen for two generations after its invention, so the significant impact of the computer on society has not yet been seen. The true impact of the computer will begin to become clearer as we move into the 21st century.

Projected Revolution

Predicting the future is no simple feat. In fact, God uses his knowledge of the future as the departure for his defence of his uniqueness. He calls all men everywhere to “Present your case ... set forth your arguments. ... Bring in [your idols] to tell us what is going to happen. ... Or declare to us the things to come, tell us what the future holds so we may know that you are gods.” [Isa 41.21-23]

We cannot claim to know the future. The effect of technology upon society and, conversely, of society upon technology are far too complex for us to understand and project reliably. But by noticing current trends in society and technology and by applying the analogy of history, we can make projections which are within the realm of the possible.

In the next five chapters, I look at the present trends in five areas of computer and communication technology. I make projections about where these trends may lead us over the next twenty five years. My purpose is to be specific in these projections so that the leaders of the Church can assess the potential impact of the computer on the Church.

The Church is in the information processing business. Its objective is to present the Word to the world. Therefore my focus is on trends in the technologies which relate to the processing and communication of ideas and words. Although my projections will probably not happen as stated, computer and communication technologies will have an impact on both society and the Church. The rumble is growing louder, and the storm is about to burst upon us:

There is no longer any doubt that such machines will reshape human civilization even more quickly and more thoroughly than did the printing press. Gutenberg's invention, which so empowered Jefferson and his colleagues in their fight for democracy, seems to pale before the rise of electronic communications and innovations, from the telegraph to television, to the microprocessor and the emergence of a new computerized world — an information age. [29]

The personal computer could become as galvanizing as the printing press in stimulating change in the world, in creating an environment for innovation and new ideas ... Once we have thousands of ideas to harvest, we may have the chance once again to create a second Renaissance, perhaps every bit as important as the first, in the early part of the next century. [30]

It’s quite possible that the most dramatic and rewarding applications of the information superhighway haven’t even been conceived of yet. [31]

Gutenberg and Luther changed forever the complexion of society and the Church. In like manner, ENIAC and the reformers who will be raised up by the Holy Spirit will bring lightning from the thunder clouds.

Copyright © 1997, James R. Hughes. All rights reserved.

Endnotes [Next | Previous | Contents]

[1] “50 and 100 Years Ago,” Scientific American, February, 1987. Back

[2] Jose A. B. Fortes and Benjamin Wah, “Systolic Arrays - From Concept to Implementation,” IEEE Computer, July, 1987. Back

[3] P. J. Skerrett, “The Teraflops Race,” Popular Science, September, 1987. Back

[4] Marshall McLuhan, The Gutenberg Galaxy (Toronto: University of Toronto Press, 1962), p. 141. Back

[5] Anthony Smith, Goodbye Gutenberg: The Newspaper Revolution of the 1980s (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1980), p. 313. Back

[6] McLuhan, op. cit., p. 232. Back

[7] Hiroshi Inose and John R. Pierce, Information Technology and Civilization (New York: W. H. Freeman and Company, 1984), p. 3. Back

[8] David Lyon, The Silicon Society (Grand Rapids: Eerdmans, 1986), pp. 13-14. Back

[9] Marshall McLuhan, Understanding Media: the Extensions of Man (New York: Signet Books, 1964), p. 156. Back

[10] Diane Butler, Future Work: Where to find Tomorrow’s High Tech Jobs Today (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1984), p. xiii. Back

[11] Robert Jastrow, “Toward an Intelligence Beyond Man’s,” Time, February 20, 1978. Back

[12] Ibid. Back

[13] Butler, op. cit., p. xii. Back

[14] James Martin, The Wired Society (Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey: Prentice-Hall, 1978), pp. ix, 3. Back

[15] Inose and Pierce, op. cit., p. 114. Back

[16] Smith, op. cit., p. 300. Back

[17] Mark Weiser, “The Computer for the 21st Century,” Scientific American, September, 1991. Back

[18] Aaron Marcus and Andries van Dam, “User-Interface Developments for the Nineties,” IEEE Computer, September, 1991. Back

[19] John Free, “Making PCs Easier to Use,” Popular Science, April, 1992. Back

[20] Ben Schneiderman, “Touch Screens Now Offer Compelling Uses,” IEEE Software, March, 1991. Back

[21] George Likourezos, “Pen PCs to be Sold in Multimillions,” The Institute (IEEE), March/April, 1992. Back

[22] Alfred Rosenblatt, “Make Room for Pocket Computers,” Popular Science, November, 1989. Back

[23] Larry Press, “Dynabook Revisited — Portable Computers Past, Present and Future,” Communications of the ACM, March, 1992. Back

[24] Robert Fox, “Flat not Fat,” Communications of the ACM, August, 1993. Back

[25] Stephen W. Depp and Webster E. Howard, “Flat-Panel Displays,” Scientific American, March, 1993. Back

[26] Art Kleiner, “Tabs, Pads, and Bards — Xerox’s Ubiquitous Computing,” Popular Science, May, 1992. Back

[27] Lawrence G. Tesler, “Networked Computing in the 1990s,” Scientific American, September, 1991. Back

[28] Pattie Maes, “Agents that Reduce Work and Information Overload,” Communications of the ACM, July, 1994. Back

[29] Al Gore, “Infrastructure for the Global Village,” Scientific American, September, 1991. Back

[30] John Scully, “The Relationship between Business and Higher Education — A Perspective on the 21st Century,” Communications of the ACM, September, 1989. Back

[31] Michael Antonoff, et al., “The Complete Survival Guide to the Information SuperHighway,” Popular Science, May 1994. Back